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In 1900, Smithsonian Institution curator John Elfreth Watkins wrote
an article for The Ladies' Home Journal, entitled "What May Happen in
the Next Hundred Years," filled with predictions that many of his
readers probably scoffed at as ridiculously improbable. Indeed, Watkins
was pretty far off about some things. He predicted, for example, that
the letters 'C,' 'X' and 'Q' would vanish from the alphabet, streets
would be relocated underground, and farms would grow strawberries as
large as apples. But what's more impressive is the extent to which
Watkins' vision of the future actually has come to pass -- wireless
phone networks on which a person in New York could talk to another in
China, live TV images being transmitted around the globe, MRI machines,
aerial warfare, and high-speed trains traveling between cities at 150
miles per hour. Watkins even predicted the food trucks that have become a
fad in cities throughout America [source: Watkins].
Today's futurists
-- who aim to forecast trends, inventions and events that will appear
in the decades ahead -- would love to be that prescient. But unlike
Watkins, who mostly seems to have relied upon his own imagination and
wishful thinking, modern forecasters have developed more sophisticated
methods for divining what may lie ahead. As Timothy Mack, president of
the World Future Society, explains on the organization's Web site,
futurists systematically scan the news media and published results of
scientific studies, and conduct carefully structured surveys called
"Delphi polls" in which they probe the minds of experts in various
fields. Many also now create computer simulations and even conduct
role-playing games in an effort to foresee what events and trends might
result from certain changes, such as worsening environmental problems,
the development of new energy sources or changes in the tax system
[source: Mack].
Futurists
-- whose work often is underwritten by companies and governments trying
to prepare for future problems or gain a competitive edge from
foresight -- also know that their predictions actually may shape the
world ahead. "The main purpose of studying the future is to look at what
may happen if present trends continue, decide if this is desirable,
and, if not, work to change it," Mack explains [source: Mack].
Here are 10 futurists who've greatly influenced modern society with their predictions of what may lie ahead.
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